Computed by the pipeline on this desk · every number from this run’s state.json - nothing hand-edited.
Engine verdict: enter Netherlands firstranking: Netherlands → Germany → Portugal → Poland
S1Recommendationenter Netherlands first: break-even Y3, trough €1.3M
S2The counter-caseGermany: break-even Y4, trough €-1.4M, end cash €4.7M
S3The winning marketNetherlands: end cash €9.6M, minimum cash €1.3M
S4SensitivityNetherlands: fundable · Germany: insolvent · Portugal: insolvent · Poland: insolvent
S5SequencingNetherlands → Germany → Portugal → Poland
The outline is fixed by the method; every number on it comes from this run.
Files13
Markets modelled4
Values extracted74 · 74 det / 0 AI
Checks6 / 9 passed · 2 handled
Run modeOverdrive · gpt-5-mini
RecommendationNetherlands
Break-evenY3
Cash trough€1.3M
LLM calls30 live · 40 from cache · €0.06
Model audit70 values re-checked by the model · 70 agree · 0 disagree · 0 applied, 0 held
Evidence gaps: what the pack does not establish
GAP-01opportunistic testing volumeGermany · Explicitly not centrally reported; excluded from the base case per the national report.
GAP-02competitor list priceall · Competitor brief says 'broadly similar list price' - no number anywhere in the pack.
GAP-03IVDR certification timelinecompany · Single source (company briefing, 'expected within about a year'); no corroboration.
GAP-04penetration benchmarkall · Ramp rests on ONE comparable pilot ('one fifth of eligible volume within three years').
Overdriveblue: the path this run took · grey: a branch this mode could have taken · click any node