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"country": "Portugal", "institution": "Hospital de Braga", "unit": 3, "type": "Endoscopy", "type_votes": "Endoscopy:10/Pathology:4", "type_conflict": true, "capacity_annual": 3800, "capacity_min": 1500.0, "capacity_max": 5200.0, "capacity_conflict": true, "n_source_records": 14, "registers": "master+national:Portugal", "master_only": false }, { "facility_uid": "HLX-PO-214", "country": "Portugal", "institution": "Hospital de Braga", "unit": 4, "type": "Endoscopy", "type_votes": "Endoscopy:10/Pathology:3", "type_conflict": true, "capacity_annual": 3050, "capacity_min": 850.0, "capacity_max": 5200.0, "capacity_conflict": true, "n_source_records": 13, "registers": "national:Portugal", "master_only": false }, { "facility_uid": "HLX-PO-215", "country": "Portugal", "institution": "Hospital de Braga", "unit": 5, "type": "Endoscopy", "type_votes": "Endoscopy:10/Pathology:2", "type_conflict": true, "capacity_annual": 3050, "capacity_min": 1500.0, "capacity_max": 4100.0, "capacity_conflict": 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}, { "facility_uid": "HLX-PO-221", "country": "Portugal", "institution": "Hospital de Santa Maria", "unit": 5, "type": "Endoscopy", "type_votes": "Endoscopy:7/Pathology:4", "type_conflict": true, "capacity_annual": 2900, "capacity_min": 1500.0, "capacity_max": 3200.0, "capacity_conflict": true, "n_source_records": 11, "registers": "master+national:Portugal", "master_only": false }, { "facility_uid": "HLX-PO-222", "country": "Portugal", "institution": "Hospital de Santa Maria", "unit": 6, "type": "Endoscopy", "type_votes": "Endoscopy:8/Pathology:1", "type_conflict": true, "capacity_annual": 2200, "capacity_min": 850.0, "capacity_max": 5200.0, "capacity_conflict": true, "n_source_records": 9, "registers": "master+national:Portugal", "master_only": false }, { "facility_uid": "HLX-PO-223", "country": "Portugal", "institution": "IPO Porto", "unit": 1, "type": "Endoscopy", "type_votes": "Endoscopy:14/Pathology:2", "type_conflict": true, "capacity_annual": 2325, "capacity_min": 850.0, 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"Netherlands/screening_report": 0.71, "company/market_landscape": 0.71 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Netherlands", "param": "price_per_test", "sources": { "Netherlands/screening_report": 215, "company/market_landscape": 215 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Netherlands", "param": "time_to_reimbursement_months", "sources": { "Netherlands/screening_report": 12, "company/market_landscape": 12 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Poland", "param": "colonoscopy_tariff", "sources": { "Poland/screening_report": 300, "company/market_landscape": 300 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Poland", "param": "eligible_population", "sources": { "Poland/screening_report": 11200000, "company/market_landscape": 11200000 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Poland", "param": "fit_positivity", "sources": { "Poland/screening_report": 0.065, "company/market_landscape": 0.065 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Poland", "param": "participation", "sources": { "Poland/screening_report": 0.17, "company/market_landscape": 0.17 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Poland", "param": "price_per_test", "sources": { "Poland/screening_report": 115, "company/market_landscape": 115 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Poland", "param": "time_to_reimbursement_months", "sources": { "Poland/screening_report": 12, "company/market_landscape": 12 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Portugal", "param": "colonoscopy_tariff", "sources": { "Portugal/screening_report": 400, "company/market_landscape": 400 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Portugal", "param": "eligible_population", "sources": { "Portugal/screening_report": 3050000, "company/market_landscape": 3050000 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Portugal", "param": "fit_positivity", "sources": { "Portugal/screening_report": 0.062, "company/market_landscape": 0.062 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Portugal", "param": "participation", "sources": { "Portugal/screening_report": 0.43, "company/market_landscape": 0.43 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Portugal", "param": "price_per_test", "sources": { "Portugal/screening_report": 155, "company/market_landscape": 155 }, "agree": true }, { "scope": "Portugal", "param": "time_to_reimbursement_months", "sources": { "Portugal/screening_report": 12, "company/market_landscape": 12 }, "agree": true } ], "findings": [ { "id": "CHK-01", "name": "Landscape vs national report agreement", "status": "PASS", "severity": "fail", "detail": "24 multi-source parameters compared; 0 disagreement(s)", "note": "Every parameter present in both the Market Landscape and a national screening report must agree (tolerance 0.5%).", "resolution": { "state": "", "how": "" } }, { "id": "CHK-02", "name": "Competitor volume vs addressable market", "status": "FAIL", "severity": "fail", "detail": "OncoStream claims 300,000 tests/yr but Germany's entire organised addressable volume is 174,240/yr (1.7x the whole market). Company-reported figure REJECTED for modelling; the independent 35-40% share estimate (~61-70k tests/yr) is retained instead.", "note": "A vendor cannot process more triage tests than the entire organised addressable volume. Company-reported figures must be checked against primary screening statistics.", "resolution": { "state": "handled", "how": "handled: the company-reported figure is excluded from the model; the independent share estimate is used" } }, { "id": "CHK-03", "name": "Competitor claim vs its own analyst share estimate", "status": "WARN", "severity": "warn", "detail": "fails for Germany", "note": "The 300k claim should also be consistent with the 35-40% independent share estimate quoted in the same brief.", "resolution": { "state": "handled", "how": "handled: same figure as CHK-02, excluded from the model" } }, { "id": "CHK-04", "name": "Rates are valid fractions", "status": "PASS", "severity": "fail", "detail": "0 out-of-range value(s)", "note": "", "resolution": { "state": "", "how": "" } }, { "id": "CHK-05", "name": "Deferral rate consistent with sensitivity/specificity", "status": "PASS", "severity": "warn", "detail": "holds for company", "note": "Deferred share = (1-sens)*prev + spec*(1-prev). Solving for the pack's 45% deferral implies ~20% significant-pathology prevalence among FIT-positives - internally consistent.", "resolution": { "state": "", "how": "" } }, { "id": "CHK-06", "name": "Facility capacity plausibility", "status": "PASS", "severity": "warn", "detail": "126 monthly rows annualised x12; 0 endoscopy unit(s) without resolvable capacity", "note": "Endoscopy units must report positive annual capacity after normalisation; pathology units carry none by design. Monthly-reported rows must have been annualised (x12).", "resolution": { "state": "", "how": "" } }, { "id": "CHK-07", "name": "Screened volume arithmetic", "status": "FAIL", "severity": "fail", "detail": "fails for Portugal", "note": "Addressable = eligible x participation / 2 (biennial) x positivity, recomputed from components.", "resolution": { "state": "open", "how": "needs a human: correct the source value in overrides.yaml (with a reason) or re-run in Overdrive so the model can re-read it" } }, { "id": "CHK-08", "name": "Colonoscopy demand vs national endoscopy capacity", "status": "INFO", "severity": "info", "detail": "Portugal: 79,999 referrals vs 165,425 register capacity (48% utilisation) | Germany: 174,240 referrals vs 156,433 register capacity (111% utilisation) | Netherlands: 159,910 referrals vs 155,800 register capacity (103% utilisation) | Poland: 61,880 referrals vs 145,125 register capacity (43% utilisation)", "note": "FIT-positive referrals compared with deduplicated national endoscopy capacity - a utilisation, not an error, check.", "resolution": { "state": "", "how": "" } }, { "id": "CHK-09", "name": "Absolute values inside plausible ranges", "status": "PASS", "severity": "fail", "detail": "0 out-of-range value(s)", "note": "A population read as \"11.5\" instead of 11,500,000, or a price read as 0.215, passes arithmetic checks that only compare derived numbers to their own components. This check catches the component itself.", "resolution": { "state": "", "how": "" } } ], "workspace": "exercise-2", "files": { "skipped": [ "0_Candidate_Brief.pdf" ], "unassigned": [] }, "conclusion": { "ranking": [ "Netherlands", "Germany", "Portugal", "Poland" ], "recommendation": "Netherlands", "results": { "Portugal": { "years": [ { "year": 1, "ramp": 0.0, "tests": 0, "cogs": 58.0, "revenue": 0, "gross_margin": 0, "ebitda": -2050000, "cash": 1830000 }, { "year": 2, "ramp": 0.07, "tests": 5600, "cogs": 54.5, "revenue": 867989, "gross_margin": 562793, "ebitda": -1487207, "cash": 342793 }, { "year": 3, "ramp": 0.13, "tests": 10400, "cogs": 51.0, "revenue": 1611980, "gross_margin": 1081586, "ebitda": -968414, "cash": -625621 }, { "year": 4, "ramp": 0.2, "tests": 16000, "cogs": 47.5, "revenue": 2479969, "gross_margin": 1719979, "ebitda": -330021, "cash": -955642 }, { "year": 5, "ramp": 0.22, "tests": 17600, "cogs": 44.0, "revenue": 2727966, "gross_margin": 1953576, "ebitda": -96424, "cash": -1052066 } ], "break_even_year": null, "min_cash": -1052066, "end_cash": -1052066, "insolvent": true, "offset_years": 1, "system_saving_per_100": 2500, "params": { "eligible_population": 30500009, "participation": 0.43, "fit_positivity": 0.062, "price_per_test": 155, "time_to_reimbursement_months": 12, "colonoscopy_tariff": 400, "screening_interval": "Biennial", "entry_cost": 120000, "inmarket_cost_per_year": 250000, "addressable_fit_positive": 79999, "annual_screened": 6557502 } }, "Germany": { "years": [ { "year": 1, "ramp": 0.0, "tests": 0, "cogs": 58.0, "revenue": 0, "gross_margin": 0, "ebitda": -2400000, "cash": 1150000 }, { "year": 2, "ramp": 0.0, "tests": 0, "cogs": 54.5, "revenue": 0, "gross_margin": 0, "ebitda": -2400000, "cash": -1250000 }, { "year": 3, "ramp": 0.07, "tests": 12197, "cogs": 51.0, "revenue": 2866248, "gross_margin": 2244211, "ebitda": -155789, "cash": -1405789 }, { "year": 4, "ramp": 0.13, "tests": 22651, "cogs": 47.5, "revenue": 5323032, "gross_margin": 4247100, "ebitda": 1847100, "cash": 441311 }, { "year": 5, "ramp": 0.2, "tests": 34848, "cogs": 44.0, "revenue": 8189280, "gross_margin": 6655968, "ebitda": 4255968, "cash": 4697279 } ], "break_even_year": 4, "min_cash": -1405789, "end_cash": 4697279, "insolvent": true, "offset_years": 2, "system_saving_per_100": 8000, "params": { "eligible_population": 26400000, "participation": 0.22, "fit_positivity": 0.06, "price_per_test": 235, "time_to_reimbursement_months": 24, "colonoscopy_tariff": 700, "screening_interval": "Biennial", "entry_cost": 450000, "inmarket_cost_per_year": 600000, "annual_screened": 2904000, "addressable_fit_positive": 174240 } }, "Netherlands": { "years": [ { "year": 1, "ramp": 0.0, "tests": 0, "cogs": 58.0, "revenue": 0, "gross_margin": 0, "ebitda": -2150000, "cash": 1650000 }, { "year": 2, "ramp": 0.07, "tests": 11194, "cogs": 54.5, "revenue": 2406646, "gross_margin": 1796589, "ebitda": -353411, "cash": 1296589 }, { "year": 3, "ramp": 0.13, "tests": 20788, "cogs": 51.0, "revenue": 4469484, "gross_margin": 3409281, "ebitda": 1259281, "cash": 2555870 }, { "year": 4, "ramp": 0.2, "tests": 31982, "cogs": 47.5, "revenue": 6876130, "gross_margin": 5356985, "ebitda": 3206985, "cash": 5762855 }, { "year": 5, "ramp": 0.22, "tests": 35180, "cogs": 44.0, "revenue": 7563743, "gross_margin": 6015814, "ebitda": 3865814, "cash": 9628669 } ], "break_even_year": 3, "min_cash": 1296589, "end_cash": 9628669, "insolvent": false, "offset_years": 1, "system_saving_per_100": 7750, "params": { "eligible_population": 4950000, "participation": 0.71, "fit_positivity": 0.091, "price_per_test": 215, "time_to_reimbursement_months": 12, "colonoscopy_tariff": 650, "screening_interval": "Biennial", "entry_cost": 200000, "inmarket_cost_per_year": 350000, "annual_screened": 1757250, "addressable_fit_positive": 159910 } }, "Poland": { "years": [ { "year": 1, "ramp": 0.0, "tests": 0, "cogs": 58.0, "revenue": 0, "gross_margin": 0, "ebitda": -2100000, "cash": 1750000 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"addressable_fit_positive": 61880 } } }, "skipped": {} }, "gaps": [ { "id": "GAP-01", "market": "Germany", "field": "opportunistic testing volume", "why": "Explicitly not centrally reported; excluded from the base case per the national report.", "impact": "Upside only - could enlarge German addressable volume.", "plan": [ "Query: KBV/G-BA opportunistic FIT volume statistics", "Source type: statutory insurance billing data (EBM codes)", "Fills: Germany.opportunistic_volume (quarantined until human-approved)" ] }, { "id": "GAP-02", "market": "all", "field": "competitor list price", "why": "Competitor brief says 'broadly similar list price' - no number anywhere in the pack.", "impact": "Pricing pressure scenario in NL/PT/PL cannot be quantified.", "plan": [ "Query: OncoStream tender records, national procurement portals", "Source type: public tender award notices", "Fills: competitor.list_price per market (quarantined until human-approved)" ] }, { "id": "GAP-03", "market": "company", "field": "IVDR certification timeline", "why": "Single source (company briefing, 'expected within about a year'); no corroboration.", "impact": "A slip would not block CE-marked sales but matters for tenders.", "plan": [ "Query: notified-body queue times for IVDR class C assays", "Source type: MedTech Europe / notified body reports", "Fills: company.ivdr_expected_months (quarantined until human-approved)" ] }, { "id": "GAP-04", "market": "all", "field": "penetration benchmark", "why": "Ramp rests on ONE comparable pilot ('one fifth of eligible volume within three years').", "impact": "The single most sensitive model input; the \u00b150% ramp scenario brackets it.", "plan": [ "Query: published uptake curves for triage assays post-reimbursement", "Source type: peer-reviewed screening-programme evaluations", "Fills: company.penetration_benchmark corroboration (quarantined until human-approved)" ] } ], "manifest": { "run_at": "2026-08-31T12:04:43+00:00", "workspace": "exercise-2", 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